Menhaden Resource Efficiency PLC
Annual Report for the year ended 31 December 2023
Safran has profited from the commercial aviation industry’s
resurgence. Flight cycles are the key driver of the company’s
financial performance, with most of its earnings coming from
aftermarket sales of spare parts. We believe air travel
remains a secular growth story, with most people still never
having travelled on a plane. Growing aftermarket volumes
should be augmented by a benign pricing environment,
following difficulties encountered by engine manufacturer
rivals, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls Royce.
Amazon aims to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2040.
Progress so far includes the company’s carbon intensity
falling 7% from 2021 to 2022 and 90% of electricity
consumed attributable to renewable energy sources, with a
path to 100% by 2025. Profitability and free cash flow
generation have meaningfully recovered and we expect both
to continue growing well. The retail business’ operating
margins are benefiting from the switch to a regional fulfilment
model in the US. This translates into shorter delivery
distances and faster delivery speeds. New robotics initiatives
could further boost productivity in the coming years. Amazon
Web Services’ growth rate is picking up following a softer
Cloud environment focused on workload optimisations. CEO
Jassy is still keen to highlight the remaining opportunity, with
90% of IT spend still on-premises. Capital investment is also
moderating, following the expansion of the fulfilment network.
French infrastructure group, VINCI, aims to reduce Scope1
and 2 emissions by 40% and Scope 3 emissions by 20% by
2030. These are notable goals for a construction company
and include increasing the use of low carbon concrete for
90% of its needs. The airports segment has recovered
strongly in 2023. Traffic is now above 95% of 2019 levels but
there are considerable differences between regions. Neither
France nor the UK, two of the most important countries, have
yet returned to 2019 levels. VINCI’s management team
continues to deploy capital in a measured way and outlined
plans to build and operate a portfolio of renewable energy
assets through its Cobra IS business unit at its Investor Day
in December 2023. The team is aiming to have 5 GW of
capacity in operation or under construction by 2025 and 12
GW by 2030. The company started operating its first
renewable energy asset last year, with the commissioning of
the Brazilian Belmonte solar farm (0.6 GW) in July 2023.
We renewed a position in aircraft manufacturer Airbus in
February and repeatedly increased its size over the next
sixmonths. This was the portfolio’s largest holding at 12.5%
of NAV at the year end. The company’s shares had
previously been held in the portfolio but we exited in April
2021, believing that the post-Covid recovery would take
significantly longer than implied by the price. Now
commercial aviation’s recovery is nearly complete and the
secular growth of air travel appears set to resume. Fleet
renewal requirements and the need for the global aviation
sector to accelerate their decarbonisation are key drivers.
By upgrading to Airbus’ latest generation aircraft, customers
can reduce carbon emissions by 20-30%. Airbus’ aircraft
are also certified to operate on 50% sustainable aviation fuel
(SAF), with a target to reach 100% by the end of the decade.
Airbus plans to reduce scope 1 and 2 emissions by 63% by
2030 and reduce scope 3 emissions by 46% by 2035.
Their management team remains focused on ramping A320
production. This programme is sold out until 2029.
Personnel hiring ahead of current manufacturing needs and
the building of certain key inventories should help to ensure
a successful ramp up. Engine deliveries remain a bottleneck
but both CFM (Safran and GE) and Pratt & Whitney have
reaffirmed their commitments for 2024. Deliveries of aircraft
should increase from 735 in 2023 to more than 1,000
annually in the coming years and underpin significant
earnings growth. This profile is well supported by the current
backlog of nearly 8,600 aircraft.
Holding company, Ocean Wilsons, comprises a controlling
interest in publicly listed Brazilian port operator, Wilson Sons,
and a diversified investment portfolio. Shipping has the lowest
climate impact of any freight method, on a per unit basis,
producing between 10-40 grams of CO2 per metric ton of
freight per kilometre of transportation, which is around half
that even of rail freight. Wilson Sons’ asset base enjoys high
barriers to entry and substantial operating leverage for growth
in Brazil’s international trade shipping sector. Following a
strategic review in June, Ocean Wilsons confirmed the receipt
of several indicative non-binding offers for its investment in
Wilson Sons. The company could unlock significant value,
with the shares trading at more than a 50% discount to NAV.
The semiconductor industry appears to have passed the
bottom of its sales cycle. Whilst the profile of any recovery
is uncertain, a return to growth should translate into higher
capital spending. This should benefit the semiconductor
capital equipment companies in the portfolio, ASML,
LamResearch and KLA. Each company dominates its
respective niche in the value chain and plays a critical role in
helping the wider industry both maximise semiconductor
production from finite resources and develop and produce
more advanced and energy efficient chips. We believe the
fundamental drivers of semiconductor demand remain as
clear as ever: cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, the
Internet of Things (IoT) and the digitalisation of the
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